Who will win Cricket World Cup 2015?

It is an overused cliché that cricket is a game of glorious uncertainties and hence anyone who predicts the winner of a cricket world cup may have to swallow the humble pie once the tournament reaches its climax. However, without making a prediction on the winner of the tournament, this writer aims at analysing the chances of the eight test playing nations competing in the tournament. 

India: Let us start with India, the defending champions will play once again under the charismatic leadership of MS Dhoni. There is no doubt that India will have a very tough task ahead in defending their title. With the kind of team India has, with weak bowling and out of form batting, it will find it extremely difficult to face even average oppositions. Indian bowling has never been particularly strong, but the current crop of bowlers is appalling as far as discipline and abilities are concerned. With the absence of Ishant Sharma, fast bowling department of Indian bowling is awfully weak. When Bhuvaneshwar Kumar is a pretty decent bowler, it can’t be said about either Muhammad Shami or Umesh Yadav. Lack of consistency would be a major handicap for both of the bowlers. Their lines and lengths are wavered and their inability to master yorkers or slower balls, vital skills in an ODI bowler’s armoury, will definitely put them under the sword against quality batting. 

It is yet to be seen how much purchase spin bowlers get in Aussie and Kiwi pitches. Though wrist spinners have had some good record in those pitches, finger spinners rarely had good times there. Therefore it is highly unlikely that Aswin, Jadeja or Axar Patel will have big say in the affairs of a match. 

Indian batting line up is also in tatters and with the exception of Rohit Sharma and may be Rahane and Raina, no one is in the thick of their forms. Dhawan and Kohli are struggling, Rayudu is at best a mediocre operator and captain MS Dhoni appears past his prime. And if Stuart Binny is the best all rounder in India, then you know India is struggling quite terribly in that department. All in all, if India survives the first knock-out stage it will be a real wonder, but you can never completely write off Dhoni’s men.

Australia: Australia will always start any world cup as one of the favourites to win the cup and when the tournament is played in their backyard, they become the hot favourite to win the championship. It is yet to be seen if Australia will begin the tournament with Michael Clarke as captain as he is still unsure to play owing to the injury he suffered. The opening combination of Aaron Finch and David Warner will threaten any bowling side in the world. Steven Smith is in the form of his lifetime, Glenn Maxwell can blast away any attack with his unconventional style of batting, Mitchell Marsh can use the long handle well in the slog overs, James Faulkner is the best finisher among the current crop of players, wicket keeper-batsman Brad Haddin is as resilient as ever and if Shane Watson and George Bailey find their form then stopping Australia from scoring big will be extremely difficult. 

When it comes to bowling Australia has one of the most deadly combinations of fast bowler including Mitchell Johnson, Mitchell Starc and Josh Hazlewood, all three who can bowl at 145kms/hr and above. The two Mitchells have been at their top form and when they get the support of the pace and bounce of Australian pitches, they would be a handful. Though the spinning department with Xavier Doherty is a matter of worry, it could be so that Australia may even never look at playing him in the eleven. With Smith and Maxwell bowling their part time spinners well, Australia may look at using them as the spinning option. All-rounders Watson, Marsh and Faulkner add more firepower to the Aussie attack, not to mention the importance of brilliant strategies formed by the astute manager Darren ‘Boof’ Lehmann. 

South Africa: On the sheer basis of talent there is no better team to win the world cup than the Proteas. It is another matter that the most important thing that they have to fight off to emerge as champions is their own ‘choker’ image. In world cups they have had many a slip between the cup and the lip, starting from 1992 when they played world cup for the first time after many years of Apartheid. However things could be different this time around under the fiery captaincy of the one and only AB deVilliers.

One of the biggest headaches for bowlers around the world in this world cup would be how to tame the batting power of South Africa, and particularly the explosive, innovative and unstoppable AB deVilliers. ABD, as he is often called, is perhaps the most dangerous batsman of the present day. When he is going, nothing, absolutely nothing seems to be able to stop him. There is no challenge for a bowler in cricket world cup 2015 greater than stopping ABD. Add to it the brilliance of Hashim Amla, Faf du Plessis, David Miller, Quinton de Kock, JP Duminy and the new kid on the block, Rilee Rossouw, you have the most dangerous batting line up in the world.

When it comes to bowling, South Africa has the best opening bowlers of the day – Dale Steyn and Morne Morkel. The pace and bounce these two fearsome men generate will test the best of the batsmen. Supporting them would be Vernon Philander, Kyle Abbott, Wayne Parnell, Imran Thahir and Aaron Phangiso. The high standards they set on their fielding would mean that an opposition team will get 10-15 runs short than they would have got against any other team.

Sri Lanka: “Let’s do it for Mahela and Sangakkara” would be the war cry that Sri Lanka would be making in this world cup. This would be the last time that the legends, Mahela Jayawardene and Kumar Sangakkara would be playing World Cup for Sri Lanka and their team will do everything to give them a great farewell by winning the world cup. For the past few years, Sri Lanka has played a lot of final matches but was not able to finish off at the winning side. Last two world cups, they played the finals but lost at the last pitstop. When in 2007 Australia denied them the cup, in 2011 it was India.

Under the new captain, the super all-rounder Angelo Mathews, Sri Lanka is a formidable side. Other than Mahela and Sangakkara, they also have the experience and skill of Dilshan to call for. Add to it the youthful spirit of Dinesh Chandimal, Lahiru Thirimanne and Dimuth Karunaratne, they have a very strong batting line up. 

Bowling will be spearheaded by the inimitable Lasith Malinga, who will be supported by Nuwan Kulasekara, the all rounder Thisara Perera, Suranga Lakmal, Rangana Herath and others. However one weakness that would affect the Lankans would be the lack of precision in bowling with the exception of Malinga. Herath and Senanayake are good spin bowlers, but at the wickets in Australia and New Zealand, they both are unlikely to be effective.

New Zealand: It was in the year 1992 that a very brave Kiwi by name of Martin Crowe took his team to the cusp of glory when it played Pakistan in the semi-finals. But they fell there and were not able to make it to the finals of World Cup till now. Now is there chance to make immense and put their hands on that coveted cup. When the Kiwis take the field under the spirited leadership of Brendon McCullum, the cricketing world would look at them with great hope. Their captain is in top form and on his day he can tear apart any bowling attack in the world. Add to it the young, champion batsman Kane Williamson and the very talented Ross Taylor, Martin Guptill, the comeback man Grant Elliot and the Aussie-turned-Kiwi Luke Ronchi, New Zealand is a champion batting line up. And we haven’t still mentioned about the whirlwind batsman, Corey Anderson, the all-rounder who till recently had kept the record of the fastest hundred in ODIs.

Tim Southee, Trent Boult, Mitchell McClenaghan, Adam Milne, Nathan McCullum and the ever so young Daniel Vettori will manage the bowling attack. The fast bowlers of this side can test the reflexes of many a batsman with their speed. The guile of Vettori, perhaps the greatest left arm spinner of our times, is renowned all over the world. If New Zealand can really get together and put their best efforts, they can be the world champions this time.

England: Under the captaincy of Eoin Morgan, England will play this world cup with an intention to leave behind their ordinary world cup record and to emerge as a new champion of world cricket. They have swashbuckling opening pair of Alex Hales and James Taylor. They would be followed by Joe Root, Ian Bell, Moeen Ali, Gary Ballance, Ravi Bopara and Jos Buttler. 

English bowling is also strong and under the leadership of James Anderson they boast an incisive attack that also includes Stuart Broad, Steven Finn, Chris Woakes, Chris Jordan and James Tredwell. Though they are good side, recent form doesn’t give a lot of confidence to their supporters. But one can’t never write off the Englishmen either.

Pakistan: Pakistan is the dark horse in this world cup. It has always been an unpredictable team, which could win from an awful position and can lose from a favourable position. Under the captaincy of Misbah-ul-Haq, the finisher par excellence, Pakistan boasts a good batting line up that includes Shahid Afridi, Ahmed Shehzad, Nasir Jamshed, Umar Akmal, Younis Khan and an army of un-tested, new batsmen who would be raring to go and show their strength.

However, though Pakistan is generally known for their strong bowling line up, in this world cup it is pretty weak. In the absence of Saeed Ajmal, Pakistani bowling would be spearheaded by Wahab Riaz. Giving him company would be Rahat Ali, Mohammad Irfan, Ehsan Adil and Sohail Khan. But what opponent batsmen would really fear in this Pakistan line up would be the fast leg spin of Shahid Afridi.

Pakistan has really been handicapped by the absence of many of their important players, noted among them would be Saeed Ajmal, Mohammad Hafiz and Junaid Khan.

West Indies: Like Pakistan, West Indies is also an unpredictable team. The absence of their key players Dwayne Bravo and Keiron Pollard, however, would affect their tournament performance. In the absence of those two key players, greater responsibility would come on the shoulders of Chris Gayle, Marlon Samuels and Darren Sammy. With the kind of firepower that the above mentioned batsmen can generate, West Indies can always threaten any opposition.

Once upon a time West Indies bowlers had intimidated batsmen around the world with their pace. But today it is a thing of the past and the West Indies bowlers no longer generate a lot of fear among the minds of batsmen. Under Kemar Roach and Jerome Taylor, they still have some pace, but not the sharpness to threaten batsmen. However in limited over matches they can be quite handy and we could write them off only at our peril.

Bangladesh: The Bangladesh Tigers have often defeated bigger teams in world cup tournaments and outside. Though they emerged as a good team a few years back, they no longer have the firepower to be considered a giant killer. Bangladesh experimented with many captains and in this world cup they play under the captaincy of Mashrafe Mortaza, when two other former captains, Sakib al-Hassan and Mushfiqur Rahim are also in the team. Tamim Iqbal and Mahmudullah are also key players in the team, but the fortunes of the team would depend mostly on how Sakib will show his all-round performance.

Though he might end up having egg on the face if he resorts to prediction in a world cup cricket tournament, this writer would predict the four teams in the semi finals. Australia, South Africa, New Zealand and Sri Lanka. From there on it would be anyone’s game and the team that gets two good days will become the champion. As an Indian cricket fan this writer however hopes that some miracle would happen and India would defend their title. In the end, let us stop with another cliché, may the best team win.

In Delhi AAP wave decimates the Modi wave

When a party that won general elections with an overwhelming majority incurs a crushing defeat in a state to a party that came into existence just a couple of years back, you know that you are witnessing history. The Modi juggernaut was rolling on claiming win after win, in the general elections of 2014, assembly elections of Maharashtra, Haryana, Jharkhand and then in J&K. The party and its supporters were on cloud nine when electoral tragedy struck, which has brought down all of them to earth. The combination of the master speaker Narendra Modi and the master strategist and the former’s right hand man, Amit Shah has been running the party as their fiefdom and all important decisions of the party have been taken by them. Therefore as the credit of the election victories deservedly went to them, the responsibility of this huge loss must also rest with them. Out of 70 seats in Delhi, BJP was able to win only 3 seats, 29 seats less than what they got in 2013. AAP, under the leadership of Arvind Kejriwal, made a virtual clean sweep as they won 67 of the remaining seats. How did BJP slump to such a huge loss in Delhi?

Though they boast about and roam around the country claiming to be master strategists, Modi and Shah made the strategic mistake of not calling for elections in Delhi along with elections in Maharashtra, Haryana and Jharkhand. It is still unclear what made them postpone the decision for so long. One line of thought is that the duo assumed that in a few months, after the defeat in the general elections, AAP will disintegrate and disappear into oblivion. In that case BJP could have had a free run with no strong opposition to counter them. However in the intervening months what happened was something the duo didn’t expect. Instead of disintegrating, AAP strengthened their grass-root level actions and their volunteers. They worked with the common man and created a strong base that flung into action during the elections. When BJP’s state leadership and activists were involved in deep infighting, AAP’s activists and leaders were concentrating on rebuilding their lost trust after the 49 day government resigned much to people’s discontent. Kejriwal was forthright in apologising to the people for his ill-advised move and requested Delhi-ites to give him another chance to make immense.

Anti-establishment emotions have been very strong in India in general and in a state like Delhi in particular. During the run up to the 2014 general elections, Narendra Modi was able to position himself as someone who is not an insider of the establishment. He made good use of his chaiwallah image, which made common people believe that he was one among them. He positioned himself as the underdog who was fighting against the corrupt establishment, which was Congress. However, after assuming power at the centre as the Prime Minister of the country, Modi lost his image as the common man. His high profile foreign visits, which squandered a lot of public money, came for criticism from the public. The 10 lakh suit with his name printed on it that he wore during the Republic Day celebration established him in the public eye as a narcissistic leader who gives a lot of importance to self image and lavish lifestyle, a characteristic feature of those in the establishment. His arrogance and sometimes laughable show of self-importance were on display on all his public appearances, which flashed into the public’s eye through live television coverage.

Narendra Modi had been the star campaigner for BJP in the general elections and state elections after that. However signs of his losing popularity was evident when only a very few numbers turned out to listen to him in the first public rally he addressed in Delhi. This made Amit Shah understand that Modi wave was not going to work wonders for the party in Delhi. He understood that BJP needed someone with big public acceptance as the BJP’s leader to counter the Kejriwal effect. For that Shah inducted Kiran Bedi to the party and made her party’s Chief Ministerial candidate. But this didn’t augur well for the party as long time BJP workers felt let down by Amit Shah on bringing an outsider as their leader. Public was also able to see through the dishonest political ambitions of a late turncoat like Ms. Bedi. She was not able to garner the support of her party or gain the trust of her electorate. 

When BJP understood that they are losing their battle against AAP in Delhi, they resorted to a lot of mudslinging to discredit AAP. Such a negative campaign didn’t go down well with the people of Delhi. BJP roped in their 120 MPs and 25 ministers of Central government for the negative campaign against AAP. Even Commerce Minister Nirmala Sitharaman, otherwise known as a lady of impeccable integrity and dignity, was used to disgrace AAP, where she called AAP leader Arvind Kejriwal a ‘chor’ on the issue of alleged dubious donations to AAP. BJP used cartoons to bring disrepute to Kejriwal and even dragged his family into it. All these negative campaign tactics not only didn’t work for the BJP but also backfired on them.

Another reason why BJP had to face a terrible loss in Delhi is because it was unable to reign in the divisive, Hindutva elements. Delhi voters were clever enough to understand the sectarian agenda of those bigots who attempted to dictate their cultural and lifestyle choices. The likes of Sakshi Maharaj and Sadhvi Niranjan Jyoti have alienated the liberals in the country from the BJP. Though the aspirational young voters of the country are not moved by the traditional politics over ‘secularism’, which often means minority appeasement, they are not influenced by the inflammatory statements made by the Hindutva elements in BJP either. The Hindutva elements in BJP are not the fringe elements, they are mainstream elements, and it is the development-oriented people who are the fringe elements in BJP. With his silence on such utterances made by the extremist elements in his party, Narendra Modi appeared to have a silent complicity in these acts. If he remains silent people will believe that he connives with those in the party who take forward disruptive Hindutva policies like Ghar Wapsi.

Narendra Modi should now understand that his hollow promises of development won’t work anymore and unless he fulfils his promises with some real work on the ground his popularity will sink to deep depths pretty soon. He should stop playing the role of a King with his ostentatious display of costly suits, lavish foreign trips and orchestrated stage performances abroad. Instead he should get down from his thrown and should work to better the lives of millions of people who voted for him after believing his promises of a better India. 

BJP has credited the Modi wave with their emphatic performance in the state elections in Maharashtra, Haryana, Jharkhand and in J&K. But now when they have slumped to one of their biggest defeats, the party is trying desperately to save Modi’s face. If the win was because of the rampant Modi wave, this loss is certainly because the wave is waning in strength and has ceased to be rampant. Moreover, if the party is not ready to consider the Delhi loss as a dangerous sign and continue to derive satisfaction on the technical fact that it has maintained its vote percentage in Delhi, then the party is all set for a nosedive into further embarrassment.