24 February 2011

Will Libya’s Gaddafi Do a Hosni Mubarak?


Drawing inspiration from the successful and popular uprisings against autocratic rulers in Tunisia and Egypt, people in Libya have also taken to the street against the four decade old parochial rule of Muammar Gaddafi. But unlike Zine al-Abidine of Tunisia or Hosni Mubarak of Egypt, Gaddafi has overtly declared his intention of violent crackdown of the peaceful protests. Benghazi, the second largest city in Libya is already under the control of the protesters and they are, slowly but surely, firming their grip on the capital city of Tripoli.

Gaddafi has approved the violent use of force to crackdown the protests for democratic reforms. On his state address on Libyan state TV on 22 February, Gaddafi vowed to fight the uprising to the last drop of his blood. He accused the demonstrators of being hardened fundamentalists and called them the “followers of bin Laden and Zawahiri”. Taking a dig at the United States, he said that because of the protests Libya has become vulnerable to the simultaneous attack by al-Qaeda and the US. In his speech, Gaddafi appealed to the tribal leaders to back him as he has done tremendous amount for them. Gaddafi also called on his supporters to get to the streets and face the protestors. In the speech Gaddafi appeared in no mood to relinquish his power and seemed determined to clutch to it with hook or by crook.

Reports suggest that Gaddafi has unleashed numerous mercenary forces to attack his own people in a desperate attempt to hold on to the power. There are persistent claims from the people of Libya that they have come across mercenaries from different nations including Chad, Democratic Republic of Congo, Niger, Mali, Sudan and even from Asia and Eastern Europe. Though the military of Libya is loyal to Gaddafi many army men have defected to the other side and are working hand in glove with the pro-democratic protesters. It is only natural that many of those Libyan military men find it difficult to point their guns against their own people. Gaddafi was quick to realise that most of the Libyan army men would be reluctant to attack the Libyan protesters and therefore he has used his monetary power to get foreign mercenaries to work for him. Human Rights Watch believes that the overall death toll from the attack of the state on the protesters in all of five Libyan cities may have reached more than 300 since February 17. At the same time many other people knowledgeable of the ground scenario say that the death toll may have reached beyond 1000.

International pressure is mounting on Gaddafi to stop his violent crack down on the protesters. Arab League has suspended Libya from its membership and the United Nations has condemned the violence and appealed for an immediate end and to hold accountable all responsible for the violence. The European Union warned Libya that it would be forced to take further measure against the country if the violent crackdown of the peaceful protesters continues. The President of United States, Barack Obama has condemned the attack on the protesters and called this violent act of Gaddafi as outrageous. At the same time Indian Government is making plans to evacuate Indians from the troubled country as situation gets worsened day by day. New Delhi is rushing to increase the number of staff in Tripoli to make arrangements for the evacuation of about 18,000 Indians living in Libya, of which 12,000 is in Tripoli. Human rights organisations are also concerned with the growing human rights violations in the country and on the violent crackdown on the protesters. All rights organisations are appealing to the countries of the world to firm up their opposition to the Gaddafi regime’s violent crackdown.

Experts believe that the days of the Gaddafi regime are numbered and it is only to be seen for how many more days Gaddafi would stick on to the power using his violent crackdown on the pro-democracy protesters. International pressure is mounting and many members of his regime have already resigned as a protest to his violent crackdown. It is to be seen whether Muammar Gaddafi will do a Hosni Mubarak and renounce his power and flee or whether he will fight till his last drop of blood, as he has vowed.

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