Afghanistan’s Election Drama Comes to an End

As Abdullah Abdullah has withdrawn from the Presidential election runoff that was set for November 7, we can safely presume that Afghanistan’s election drama is finally coming to an end. Abdullah quitted the runoff in protest over, what he believes, the ‘biased attitude’ of the Independent Election Commission (IEC). It is widely believed that the IEC appointed by Mr. Hamid Karzai had been instrumental in the election rigging that put Karzai ahead of Abdullah in the Presidential election held in August.

The NATO, particularly the United States, was hoping to bring in a legitimate President in Afghanistan to gain some advantage in the losing battle there with the Taliban and other insurgents. But the Presidency that Hamid Karzai got after an election fraud by IEC, which was corroborated by U.N.-supported Election Complaint Commission (ECC), can hardly bring in any legitimacy. Karzai also has the dubious distinction of being a President who has two Vice- Presidents who are said to be a drug baron and a war criminal respectively. The withdrawal of Abdullah from the runoff is widely seen as another US attempt to convince the world that Afghanistan has got an elected government. In Afghanistan, Hamid Karzai is seen is a person with no support base and a person more close to the Americans than to fellow Afghans.

It is highly probable that Abdullah has withdrawn from the Presidential runoff under the behest of the United States. By doing so the US would be counting on Abdullah as a future candidate for Afghan Presidency, if things fail to work out with Karzai as expected. The United States is in such a quagmire and dire confusion, both politically and militarily, that they are not sure about the right strategies that they need to follow in Afghanistan. In the domestic political scene, things are getting difficult for Barack Obama and the Democrats. The Republicans are asking for a very high surge in US military presence in Afghanistan, which Obama doesn’t believe in. At the same time he is mulling over increasing the US military presence in Afghanistan by 15,000. With the electoral victory of Governorship by their candidates in Virginia and New Jersey, the Republicans would become more assertive than before. So it has become imperative for Barack Obama to take some steps to increase his popularity.

The incumbent President of Afghanistan, Hamid Karzai will have his task cut out in his second consecutive term in the office. The rising corruption and lack of effective governance are the two most important factors that he has to worry about. But to make amends in both these areas, he has to make some changes in his current administration. Moreover, his political rival, Abdullah would be breathing down his neck, which was made evident by Abdullah’s speech on 4th November, where he said that he is determined to continue his struggle for the betterment of the people of Afghanistan. Hamid Karzai would be looking forward to a reconcilement with Abdullah by stitching a coalition with Abdullah’s party. But with the high moral standing that Abdullah has acquired, by his protest against vote rigging by Karzai, he would not be thinking about it.

It would be interesting to watch how things turn out in the political drama in Afghanistan in the coming days. India, which is having a high stake in the stability of Afghanistan, along with Pakistan, Iran, China and Russia, would be watching things closely. So would be the NATO and particularly the United States.