Obama in India

There is a palpable sense of excitement all over the media and in the political circles in India and the reason is the imminent visit of American President Barack Obama that would commence on 6th November from Mumbai, where he is going to land in his Air Force One. Though both his predecessors, George W. Bush and Bill Clinton had visited India, Obama is the first US President who is visiting India in the first half of the first term as President.

Barack Hussein Obama is embarking on his first visit to India, the homeland of one of his idols, Mahatma Gandhi. Obama’s India visit has a four point agenda – partnering and investing in India’s rise as an economic and strategic powerhouse, restraining China’s domination in Asia and in the world, boosting US business in various fields including nuclear commerce and in associating with India in the affairs in Afghanistan and Africa.

A rising China is a threat for both India and the US as the near autocracy in Chinese government makes it a very dangerous country. Aggressive China has a very dubious record when it comes to its relationship with India. Both countries don’t trust each other and they always had border issues. The issues with the stapled visas that China gave to Indians from Kashmir and the Tibetan autonomy factor are major thorns in the relationship between the two countries (on the stapled visa issue it must be noted here that it is high time India reciprocate in the same way by giving stapled visa to the Tibetans and to the Uighur Chinese from the Xinjiang autonomous region of China). Therefore it is quite important for India to be wary of China’s growth in the region, especially when China is trying to indulge in the dubious development activities in many of India’s neighbour countries including Pakistan, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka. China is one of Unites States’ most important creditors and this fact is a dangerous proposition as far as the US is concerned. Though officially India and the US are not accepting that they want to curb China’s growth, it is too obvious that both countries are suspicious of China’s aggressive economic and strategic intentions. Therefore the US would believe that it is strategically important for them to help India in its rise. The high importance that the US gives to its relationship with India can be clearly seen from the fact that Manmohan Singh was the first leader of a state invited by Barack Obama after becoming the President of the United States.

Boosting US business is another important agenda of this Obama visit. It can be safely assumed at this point of time that Obama will definitely sign a defence deal with India. The area of nuclear commerce is another business opportunity that Obama would be looking to grab. After the Indo-US nuclear deal it is time for both countries to move ahead in the field of nuclear commerce. The outsourcing industry in India would be closely monitoring Obama’s state visit in India as there have been some voices of aversion from him on the outsourcing question. It is quite clear that he is against US companies shipping jobs to India and thinks that it is a major reason why unemployment rate is rather high in the US. But it must be seen how much protectionism he would bring in his country’s international trade and how it would affect Indian industry, particularly the software sector.

With this visit, Barack Obama would also be looking at partnering with India in Afghanistan and in Africa. It is a known fact the US is badly caught up in Afghanistan’s political and security mire at this point of time. Obama would be looking forward to get India’s assurance in its greater involvement in Afghanistan’s development and in making that country more secure. Economic and social development of African countries is another matter where Obama would be looking to get more assistance from India. With its strong ties with many African countries, India can play a positive role in the development of various countries in the black continent. India through its association in IBSA (India-Brazil-South Africa) is already involved in the assistance of African countries in their development.

It would be prudent for India to not expect much from Obama’s state visit. At the time of writing of this piece the counting of the votes in US election for the Senate and House of Representatives is going on. Results that have come up hitherto show that the Republicans would capture the House of Representatives, but would fall short of capturing the Senate. It would mean that there would be lot of domestic pressure on Obama to do more to save the country from the higher risks of unemployment and to better the economy that is reeling after the global economic slowdown. For the rest of his two years as President his time would be more absorbed by these domestic matters than the international affairs. However he would be keen to call back all US troops from Afghanistan before his first term ends in 2012.

Whatever may be the economic and strategic results of Obama’s state visit to India, one thing is sure that we are certain to hear a great speech from this inspiring, prolific orator when he addresses the joint session of the Parliament on 8th November. It must be seen whether the leftists in India would be present in this joint session of Parliament. Their inherent dislike for America and American Presidents are well known and they are sure to protest if India inks any defence deal with the United States during Obama’s visit. They have the history of protesting to all Indo-US alliances – may it be the nuclear deal or the combined military exercises (at the same time they made no protests when India did military exercise with Communist China).

Barack Obama’s Presidential visit to India in his first term shows India’s growing clout in international politics. India’s membership in the UN Security Council as a non-permanent member after 19 years is a major achievement that it could use for getting the support of all permanent members of the UN Security Council in its quest to become a permanent member with veto power. Indian strategic community would do well if it uses Obama’s visit to get his country’s support for the same.