Now that Mamata Banerjee has withdrawn her support for the UPA government in the centre, this writer, like many other common men, hope that this Manmohan Singh government would collapse. There have been few governments in the recent memory that have tested the patience of the country and its people as much as the incumbent government. As if the very many corruption skeletons that tumbled out of the government cupboards were not enough, it made the lives of the people difficult with many increases in the petrol and diesel prices and its inability to rein in inflation, thereby increases in prices of food and other essential commodities, with effective fiscal and monetary policies. The immediate reason for Mamata’s decision to pull out of the UPA is the recent anti-people policy measures of the UPA government including raising the diesel prices, restricting the supply of subsidised cooking gas to six cylinders per household, and opening up India's huge retail sector to foreign super-chains.
This is Indian politics and therefore one must be very careful while making statements on how tomorrow will unfold. Mamata’s ministers will give their resignations only on Friday, which makes one wonder if they are waiting for some compromise formula to come up so that they can stay in the UPA. Though the ministers have denied any such possibilities, one would never know. The UPA would be hoping that Mayawati with her BSP would come and rescue the government with their 21 MPs. Unlike Mulayam’s SP and Mamata’s Trinamool, who got thumping victories in the assembly elections in their respective states of Uttar Pradesh and West Bengal, Mayawati’s BSP won’t be all that happy with an imminent general election as they have less chances of making any gains. Moreover Mayawati is depended on the UPA government as there are many corruption cases pending against her and any government at the centre with Mulayam’s SP would spell doom to her personally.
Dr. Manmohan Singh of the UPA2 has been a disaster. When the Time Magazine called him an ‘underachiever’ and accused him of ‘unwilling to stick his neck out’, the Congress went berserk and accused the Magazine of not giving Dr. Singh a chance to be heard. Though being a great economist, Dr. Singh was unable to provide a direction to the faltering economy of the country in terms of its senile growth rate and ever increasing inflation. With Coalgate, his image as a man of impeccable integrity took a serious beating. The eternal ‘Yuvraj’ of the Congress party, Rahul Gandhi, seems to be always preparing to take up the mantle of Prime Ministership, but he never appears to be completely ready to take the responsibility.
In the eventuality of the crashing down of the present UPA government what other possibilities do we have at hand? The NDA under the command of the BJP would be the first choice for making a new government. But do they have the numbers? It is pretty unlikely that they have. LK Advani is the leader of the party but it is to be seen if he gets enough support within his party to become the prime minister. Narendra Modi seems to be the choice of many in his party for being their prime ministerial candidate and you can always find many comparisons being made in the media between Manmohan Singh and Modi. However, if Narendra Modi is the prime ministerial candidate then there are fewer chances for the NDA to survive as Nitish Kumar and his JD (U) are opposed in making Modi the prime minister.
What are the chances for the creation of a third front with the leftists in the lead? Many discussions are being held for a non-Congress, non-BJP third front. Mulayam Singh still has his prime ministerial ambitions intact and buoyed by the recent electoral gains made by SP in Uttar Pradesh he would well be taking a lead in making a third front possible. CPI (M), CPI, RSP, Forward Block, Telgu Desam Party, Biju Janata Dal and the AIADMK would all possibly join with SP. With the tension that JD (U) is facing in the NDA on the issue of Narendra Modi being made the prime ministerial candidate, one would never know what Nitish Kumar would decide once there is a possibility of a third front.
As this is Indian politics you can’t be sure what would happen in the future and what all changes can one see in the political dynamics in the country in the event of the fall of the UPA government. This writer would personally like to see the emergence of a third front and a government being made by this third front, with the leftists participating in the government. The leftists have been making all sorts of accusations on the UPA government on the mismanagement of the financial sector, retail sector and the energy sector, to name a few. It seems that the leftists have a magic wand in hand for all the curses of the country. Let them come to the government and using their magic wand bring back the Administered Price Mechanism for petrol and diesel prices and roll back the recent hikes in those prices, control inflation, bring down high prices of commodities and all in all present a new development direction for the economy of the country.
With the government of the third front at the centre, with many regional parties, there could be a danger to the federal nature of our democratic system. But with the availability of the leftists in the front, with a national policy on most matters concerning the country, one could safely imagine that federalism would not be compromised.
For the time being let us stop making predictions on how things would unfold and wait for political parties in the country to make their calls. However, this writer joins with many of his other countrymen in wishing that the UPA2 government would bite the dust sooner rather than later.
In the eventuality of the crashing down of the present UPA government what other possibilities do we have at hand? The NDA under the command of the BJP would be the first choice for making a new government. But do they have the numbers? It is pretty unlikely that they have. LK Advani is the leader of the party but it is to be seen if he gets enough support within his party to become the prime minister. Narendra Modi seems to be the choice of many in his party for being their prime ministerial candidate and you can always find many comparisons being made in the media between Manmohan Singh and Modi. However, if Narendra Modi is the prime ministerial candidate then there are fewer chances for the NDA to survive as Nitish Kumar and his JD (U) are opposed in making Modi the prime minister.
What are the chances for the creation of a third front with the leftists in the lead? Many discussions are being held for a non-Congress, non-BJP third front. Mulayam Singh still has his prime ministerial ambitions intact and buoyed by the recent electoral gains made by SP in Uttar Pradesh he would well be taking a lead in making a third front possible. CPI (M), CPI, RSP, Forward Block, Telgu Desam Party, Biju Janata Dal and the AIADMK would all possibly join with SP. With the tension that JD (U) is facing in the NDA on the issue of Narendra Modi being made the prime ministerial candidate, one would never know what Nitish Kumar would decide once there is a possibility of a third front.
As this is Indian politics you can’t be sure what would happen in the future and what all changes can one see in the political dynamics in the country in the event of the fall of the UPA government. This writer would personally like to see the emergence of a third front and a government being made by this third front, with the leftists participating in the government. The leftists have been making all sorts of accusations on the UPA government on the mismanagement of the financial sector, retail sector and the energy sector, to name a few. It seems that the leftists have a magic wand in hand for all the curses of the country. Let them come to the government and using their magic wand bring back the Administered Price Mechanism for petrol and diesel prices and roll back the recent hikes in those prices, control inflation, bring down high prices of commodities and all in all present a new development direction for the economy of the country.
With the government of the third front at the centre, with many regional parties, there could be a danger to the federal nature of our democratic system. But with the availability of the leftists in the front, with a national policy on most matters concerning the country, one could safely imagine that federalism would not be compromised.
For the time being let us stop making predictions on how things would unfold and wait for political parties in the country to make their calls. However, this writer joins with many of his other countrymen in wishing that the UPA2 government would bite the dust sooner rather than later.
