The eerie similarity between the Pathankot attacks and the recent Uri attacks by militants is hard to miss. One of the significant things that needs to be noted is the fact that we haven’t learnt any lessons from the Pathankot attacks. Moreover the government also made the ludicrous mistake of allowing Pakistani investigators to come and probe the crime scene, only to be informed by them later that they found no evidence to incriminate terror elements from Pakistan. But let’s keep that issue aside for the time being, as we are confronted with more serious issues.
We cannot allow militants from Pakistan, with the blessing of the establishment, to run amok in our country by killing our jawans and civilians. We must give them a befitting reply and must do everything in our powers to isolate Pakistan in the world stage. What all options do we genuinely have?
We have much to be thankful for as it is not the jingoistic blabbering on prime time TV that forms the basis of policy making during times of crisis. If the participants of prime time television discussion had their way, they will immediately send the army to our borders and would declare a war against our nuclear-armed rogue neighbour, Pakistan. However as sane strategic analysts would know, war against Pakistan is not an option.
Unlike in the past, in the present day, world is more connected than ever before and any conflict in any part of the world has geopolitical implications to every other region. Pakistan army would be more than happy to engage in a war with India, not because their army is any stronger than India’s, but because they know that in such a situation their all-weather mate China would make their presence felt in the conflict and would not waste a minute to raise the Kashmir issue and internationalise it – what precisely Pakistan wants. India would not desire such a situation as it is against India’s long time stand that Kashmir issue is India’s internal problem.
Now that a full-fledged war against Pakistan is out of question, what other options do we have to teach Pakistan a lesson? Can our army go all out for a surgical strike against the militants inside Pakistan’s boundary as US Navy Seals did at Abbottabad to neutralise Osama bin Laden? We did a similar operation in Myanmar recently under the NDA government (about which the sanghis were gung-ho in social media for many days). However many strategic analysts are of the opinion that it is going to be difficult for two reasons. One, our intelligence agencies are not sure about the exact location of the militants’ training centres or hideouts in Pakistan. Two, more importantly, it is easier to do a surgical strike inside the territory of a friendly country than one inside an enemy country. Myanmar may not have any issue with Indian troops entering their territory for a surgical strike, but Pakistan will not be a mute spectator and its reaction may trigger a full-fledged war in the sub-continent.
While in opposition our present Prime Minister had many creative ideas of providing befitting reply to Pakistan’s aggressive intents. During his election rallies his abusive denunciation of Pakistan had given goose bumps to his followers and fans. But now, when confronted with real issues, he appears to be clueless about what to do. When war mongering is not a viable alternative, as a Prime Minister, one must resort to other effective policy options, including diplomatic and economic means. Analysts are of the opinion that he has many such alternatives available with him if he chooses to utilise them.
As an initial step India can downgrade or withdraw “Most Favoured Nation” status it has accorded to Pakistan. The status given to Pakistan, in accordance with international trade practices and WTO regime, gives them low trade tariff and high import quota vis-a-vis its trade with India. Though India gave them the MFN status in 1996, Pakistan hasn’t returned the favour till now. In view of the Uri attacks we must immediately snatch away the favour from the Pakistanis.
In the aftermath of the Uri attacks, India had summoned Pakistan High Commissioner yesterday and conveyed to him India’s outrage on the attacks that killed 18 army jawans. We need to further escalate our diplomatic indignation by calling back our High Commissioner from Pakistan and asking Pakistan High Commissioner to go back to Pakistan.
India has a potent force in its hands to compel Pakistan to mend its inimical behaviour of exporting terrorism to India. Our nation needs to abrogate the Indus Water Treaty of 1960, which gives Pakistan undue advantage of using water flowing from the six rivers of the Indus water system. When Pakistan is in the habit of reneging from many bilateral agreements with India, including the Simla agreement, it can’t selectively demand India’s compliance with bilateral treaties. India’s diplomatic mission should tie compliance to Indus water treaty with Pakistan’s efforts to stop cross border terrorism emerging from their land. If India backs away from the treaty and stops sharing water with Pakistan, then it would negatively affect industrial and agricultural production in Pakistan.
We must also resort to various economic blockade of Pakistan and above all should make it unequivocally clear that we are not ready for bilateral talks till terrorism emanating from Pakistan stops completely. It had always been the policy of India that terror and talks won’t go hand in hand. But in his over enthusiasm to be seen as a statesman of impeccable quality Narendra Modi made amends in that long held policy and went to meet and talk with Pakistani PM whenever he got opportunity.
The present Indian government appears to be lacking in a coherent and robust Pakistan policy. It seems to be a confused lot, unable to come up with a consistent strategy when confronted with a strategic problem. Its Pakistan policy is a mess, always reactive and thoughtless. Narendra Modi’s credibility is at risk and unless he quickly finds a logical solution to this quandary, his standing in the eyes of his countrymen will take a serious hit.
Image credit: The Hindu
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