27 December 2008

India and Pakistan, after the Mumbai Siege

It has been one month since some ten miscreants from across the border, from Pakistan, emerged in the city of Mumbai via the sea route and held the whole of India under siege for about three days. The audacious attack carried out by the criminals of the terror outfit Lashkar-e-Taiba had the full backing of the ISI or the ex-officials of the organisation. As a result of this gruesome attack, India and Pakistan are at loggerheads and the diplomatic relationship between the two nuclear states is at a very low level. But instead of going on with deploying army at the border between the nations, India has taken the diplomatic route to pressurise Pakistan to take actions to dismantle the terror infrastructure in Pakistan. But the Pakistan government doesn’t seem to be in a mood to do this or doesn’t have the required power and authority to do this.

There are a lot of reasons to believe that the terror strike by Lashkar in Mumbai is a handiwork of the Pakistan army. Pakistan army is waging an unpopular war in the Afghan border against Taliban fighters of Pakistani origin. Under extreme pressure from the United States, Pakistan is forced to fight alongside NATO forces in the Pakistan-Afghanistan border. This is a war that the Pakistan army loathe to fight as they are fighting against Pakistanis against the popular wish. They are in look out for an excuse to retreat from the Afghan border and a war with India will be a great excuse for them to withdraw from the western border and redeploy the army in their eastern border with India. A war against India will be a great morale booster for the Pakistani army that is under great stress fighting their own people in the western border. As it is evident from the present scenario, a war or a prospect of war with India is perhaps the only unifying force for the Pakistanis. Right now we are seeing that all political parties in Pakistan as well as army and even Pakistani Taliban are speaking in the same voice against India. So all in all a war can be a great benefit to the army in the pursuance of their ambitions. This is exactly the reason why India is not keen for a war with Pakistan and this is the reason why the United States is also interested in having a peaceful solution to this impasse.

What India need from Pakistan is pretty simple. We want Pakistan to handover the terrorists behind the Mumbai attack to us so that they can produced under a court of justice. The lone terrorist captured in the attack, Muhammad Ajmal Kasab, has told the interrogators that he is from Pakistan and has detailed them about the training that he received from Lashkar at their centre at Muridke in Pakistan. Moreover the precision and planning with which Mumbai attackers had gone on with their assault show that they had received training from people in the army or ex-officials of the army and the ISI. But Pakistan is going on with their denial that Kasab is not a Pakistani and says that Pakistan has no hand in the Mumbai attack.

The only option available with India to pressurise Pakistan into acting against the terrorist infrastructure in their mainland is by carrying out a diplomatic offensive. India has gone to the security council of the United Nations with the demand of banning the terror outfits in Pakistan. As a result of this United Nations had banned the sister organisation of LeT, the Jamaat-ud-Dawa or the JuD. India is also working with the United States to pressurise Pakistan into taking actions against the terrorists. Indian government is also trying to rope in China as well as Saudi Arabia into its diplomatic offensive to coerce Pakistan into doing something substantial in the fight against terror. India hasn’t taken the diplomatic step of calling back its High Commissioner from Pakistan or stopping the Confidence Building Measures (CBMs) between the two nations. But the Indian government has called off the cricket team’s tour of Pakistan in the wake of the Mumbai terror strikes.

Pakistan is continuing with its denial rhetoric saying that the Mumbai attackers are not Pakistanis and hence they can’t take any actions against them. They say that they want more evidence from India, proving that the perpetrators of the Mumbai attack are from the Pakistani soil. But India is not interested in sharing the evidences with Pakistan as it is known that if we share the evidences with Pakistan they will use these evidences to help the terrorists to escape from international security forces, as is the experience of the past. In the past, when India shared evidences of the crimes committed by Pakistani nationals, Pakistan had taken some actions for the name sake and the acquitted the criminals under pretext of lack of tangible evidences against them.

Pakistan is a failed state where full-fledged democracy is still a distant dream. If someone thinks that with the arrival of democratic government in Pakistan, the grip of Pakistan army on the policy making of Pakistan is over, then they are thinking so only at their peril. Even now the army calls all the shots in Pakistan and this is evident from the way the Pakistani establishment had responded to the Mumbai attack. At first, President of Pakistan, Asif Ali Sardari promised to send the Director General of ISI to India to help in the investigation of the attack, but immediately had to backtrack following pressure from ISI and the army. So India should have no hope that Pakistan will act against the perpetrators of the Mumbai attack who have the backing and support of the ISI and the Pakistani army.

The Mumbai attack of 26/11 and the way in which Indian security forces and Mumbai police responded to it had shown to this world and the terrorists that India is a strong state with brave and courageous people. Though we were shocked for a short period of time, we have come back with more resolve and grit. At this point of time, we should also thank and salute the brave commandos and cops of India for saving thousands of people and for saving the pride of this nation. As an NSG commander has said, we hope that such an attack will not happen again in India, but if at all it happens we will make sure that the perpetrators of such crime will not go back safely. War with Pakistan is not a first option, but if that country is not ready to take actions against the terrorist infrastructure prevailing there, then we will have to resort to that last option. But till then, we have to go ahead with our diplomatic offensive and corner Pakistan and force them to take actions against the perpetrators of this heinous crime.

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